Definition
Block find probability can be calculated as: P(per block) = miner_hashrate / network_hashrate. For time periods: P(per day) = 1 – (1 – P(per block))^144, since approximately 144 blocks are mined per day.
For a Bitaxe at 500 GH/s against a 600 EH/s network, the probability of finding at least one block per day is roughly 0.000083% (about 1 in 1.2 million). Expected time to find a block: approximately 3,300 years. Despite these odds, blocks have been found by small solo miners, proving that probability is not impossibility.
In Simple Terms
The odds of your miner finding a block based on your share of network hashrate. Low for small miners but never zero.
Block Find Probability is a term used in Bitcoin mining related to open source mining.
Also known as: Win probability, Block finding odds.
Block find probability can be calculated as: P(per block) = miner_hashrate / network_hashrate. For time periods: P(per day) = 1 – (1 – P(per block))^144, since approximately 144 blocks are mined per day.
For a Bitaxe at 500 GH/s against a 600 EH/s network, the probability of finding at least one block per day is roughly 0.000083% (about 1 in 1.2 million). Expected time to find a block: approximately 3,300 years. Despite these odds, blocks have been found by small solo miners, proving that probability is not impossibility.
Understanding block find probability is important for Bitcoin miners because it directly impacts mining operations, hardware selection, or profitability calculations. Whether you are a home miner running a Bitaxe or operating a larger ASIC setup, this concept helps inform better mining decisions.
Related terms: Solo Mining, Lottery Mining, Hashrate, Network Hashrate.