Solo Mining Probability Calculator
Solo mining is the purest form of Bitcoin mining: your miner, the network, and a direct shot at the full block reward. No pools, no middlemen, no dilution. It is often called “lottery mining” because finding a block with a small miner is statistically unlikely over short periods — but it is never impossible. Every hash your miner computes is a valid attempt at solving the next block.
This calculator helps you understand your real odds. Whether you are running a Bitaxe on your desk or an Antminer in your garage, you will see exactly what your chances look like over any time horizon. Solo mining is not about guaranteed returns — it is about sovereignty, supporting decentralization, and the thrill of the hunt.
solo-mine –calculate-probability
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Understanding Solo Mining Probability
Bitcoin mining is a probabilistic process. Each hash your miner computes is an independent attempt to find a value below the network’s current target. The probability that any single hash solves a block is your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. With the network exceeding 700 EH/s, even a powerful ASIC represents a vanishingly small fraction of total compute — but the math is clear: every hash has the same chance as any other.
Mining follows a Poisson process, which means it has the “memoryless” property. Whether your miner has been running for one hour or one year, the probability of finding a block in the next ten minutes is exactly the same. There is no “building up” of luck. Each moment is a fresh roll of the dice. This also means that finding a block faster than your expected time is just as possible as finding one much later.
The probability displayed by this calculator uses the formula: P(at least 1 block) = 1 – (1 – p)n, where p is your probability of solving any given block and n is the number of blocks the network is expected to produce in your chosen time period. At approximately 144 blocks per day, even a small hashrate accumulates thousands of “attempts” over months and years.
For Bitaxe and other small solo miners, the expected time to find a block is measured in hundreds or thousands of years. But this is the expected average — it does not mean you will wait that long. Blocks have been found by solo miners with as little as a single Bitaxe unit, proving that probability and certainty are very different things. This is why the solo mining community rallies around the phrase: every hash counts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “probability of finding a block” actually mean?
It means the statistical likelihood that your miner will solve at least one Bitcoin block within the given time period. A 0.01% probability over one year means that if 10,000 identical miners each ran for one year, on average about one of them would find a block. It does not mean you need to wait 10,000 years — you could find one tomorrow or never. Each moment is an independent event.
Can a Bitaxe really find a block?
Yes, and it has happened. Solo miners running single Bitaxe units have found full Bitcoin blocks, earning the entire block reward (currently 3.125 BTC). The probability per day is extremely low, but it is never zero. As long as your miner is hashing and submitting valid work to a solo mining pool or directly to the network, every hash is a legitimate chance at the full block reward.
Is solo mining profitable?
In expected-value terms, solo mining has the same expected return per hash as pool mining (minus pool fees). However, the variance is enormous. Pool mining gives you small, predictable payouts. Solo mining gives you nothing for potentially years, then a massive windfall if you find a block. Most solo miners are not optimizing for expected profit — they mine for sovereignty, decentralization, education, and the thrill. Many also use their miners as space heaters, so the electricity cost serves double duty.
What happens to my odds after the next halving?
Your probability of finding a block does not change with the halving. The halving reduces the block reward (from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC, expected around 2028), not the difficulty. Your odds of solving a block depend on your share of the network hashrate. However, the value of finding a block is cut in half, which may cause some miners to shut down, potentially lowering difficulty and slightly improving your odds.
Why does the calculator show scientific notation for my network share?
Because your share of the network is extremely small. A Bitaxe at 500 GH/s against a 750 EH/s network represents 0.0000000667% of total hashrate. Scientific notation (like 6.67 x 10-10) is the clearest way to express these tiny fractions. Do not let the small numbers discourage you — remember that the network produces 144 blocks per day, and each one is a new chance.
Does running my miner longer increase my cumulative odds?
Yes. While each individual hash has the same probability regardless of history (the memoryless property), the cumulative probability of having found at least one block increases with time. Running a Bitaxe for 10 years gives you a meaningfully higher cumulative probability than running it for 1 day. This is the power of persistence in solo mining: time is your ally. The calculator lets you explore different time periods to see how your odds accumulate.
Solo Mining Success Stories
Against all odds, solo miners have found Bitcoin blocks with remarkably small hashrates. These stories prove that the math works both ways — improbable does not mean impossible. Here are some notable wins from the solo mining community:
Join the Solo Mining Revolution
D-Central carries the full lineup of Bitaxe solo miners, accessories, and open-source mining hardware. As pioneers in the Bitaxe ecosystem from day one, we know these machines inside and out. Start your solo mining journey today.