SOPR

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is an on-chain indicator that measures, for coins moved in a given period, the ratio of the price at which they were spent to the price at which they were acquired. Created by Renato Shirakashi, it is computed as realized value in USD divided by value at creation in USD, aggregated across all spent outputs. In plain terms, it answers whether the coins changing hands are, on average, being moved at a profit or a loss — a behavioural thermometer read directly from the ledger rather than from surveys or sentiment.

How the ledger makes this possible

Bitcoin's accounting model is what allows the metric to exist at all. Every coin lives as an unspent output — a UTXO — created at a known time and destroyed at a known time when spent. Pricing each output at creation and at destruction gives an on-chain cost basis and exit value for every coin movement, no exchange data or self-reporting required. SOPR is simply that per-output ratio aggregated across a window; the same per-output cost-basis idea underlies realized price, realized cap, and the wider family of realized metrics. The caveat is inherited too: a "spend" is any output movement, so self-transfers, exchange shuffles, and wallet consolidations register alongside genuine sales, which is why refinements exist.

How to read the value

A SOPR above 1 means the coins moved were, on aggregate, spent for more than they were acquired for — profit was realized. Below 1 means they moved at a loss. A reading of exactly 1 marks aggregate breakeven, and that level often acts as a behavioural pivot: holders are demonstrably reluctant to spend at a loss, so in optimistic conditions the metric tends to bounce off 1 from above (breakeven treated as a floor for selling), while in pessimistic conditions rallies back to 1 tend to stall (breakeven treated as an exit). Sustained readings below 1 indicate widespread loss realization — capitulation-flavoured behaviour that pairs naturally with miner-stress measures like miner capitulation and the hash ribbon.

Common refinements

Because freshly moved coins re-spent within moments muddy the signal, analysts often filter out outputs younger than one hour; adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) formalizes that cleanup to damp noise from internal transfers and exchange churn. Cohort variants isolate behaviour by holding period: STH-SOPR tracks short-term holders (commonly defined as coins younger than 155 days), whose cost basis sits near current prices and whose spending is reactive, while LTH-SOPR tracks long-term holders, whose profit-taking or loss-taking says more about conviction at cycle extremes. None of these transformations changes the core idea — they sharpen whose behaviour you are watching.

Limits and framing

SOPR describes what spent coins did, not what prices will do; it is one aggregate lens on holder behaviour, blind to derivatives, off-chain trades inside custodians, and the intent behind any movement. This metric is educational and not trading advice. For the sovereign observer its deeper value is the demonstration itself: because the ledger is public and every node holds it, anyone can compute measures like coin days destroyed or SOPR from first principles — market psychology, audited from your own copy of the chain.

Practically, you do not need a subscription to engage with the idea: the inputs are public, several analytics platforms publish the headline series, and a patient operator with a full node and a price history can reconstruct it independently — slower, but with no one between you and the data. That reproducibility is the standard to hold any on-chain metric to before letting it inform decisions.