Solo Mining Probability Calculator
Calculate your odds of finding a Bitcoin block as a solo miner. Enter your hashrate to see the expected time and probability at current network difficulty.
Quick answer
Solo block-finding is a probability, not a countdown. This calculator combines your sustained accepted hashrate with a dated, freshness-checked difficulty snapshot to estimate the chance of at least one accepted block over time. A service fee changes only the optional payout illustration; it never changes your block-finding odds.
Commercial disclosure: D-Central sells mining hardware. No purchase, brand, or seller changes this calculation, and no result promises a block or financial return.
Probability Results
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Mean time to find a block
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Probability Per Day
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Probability Per Week
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Probability Per Month
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Probability Per Year
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Protocol subsidy snapshot
Estimated share of network
Read the result as probability, not a countdown
The result estimates the probability of finding at least one valid block during the selected interval if hashrate and network conditions stay fixed. It does not predict when a miner becomes “due.” A long unsuccessful run does not improve the next header hash.
| Output | Question answered | What it does not mean |
|---|---|---|
| Expected blocks, λ | The average block count across many equivalent periods | A fraction is not a partial block or reward |
| At-least-one probability | How often one or more blocks occur across many equivalent runs | It is not confidence in a promised win date |
| Expected waiting time | The long-run mean interval at a fixed rate | It is not a deadline or maximum wait |
In the constant-rate model, 50% cumulative probability occurs at about 0.693 times the mean waiting interval and 95% at about 2.996 times the mean. Even beyond that point, one individual run is never guaranteed to succeed.
Read why accepted shares do not accumulate into a block and the complete solo-mining guide.
Time by Confidence Level
Under constant conditions, block-finding follows a Poisson model. The mean is not a countdown: by one mean waiting time, the chance of at least one accepted block is about 63.2%. Each figure below is the time by which the stated chance is reached.
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50% chance by (median)
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63.2% chance by (one mean)
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90% chance by
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99% chance by
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Thermal output context
One more unit: probability delta
Commercial disclosure: D-Central sells mining hardware. The probability result is identical for equivalent accepted hashrate, regardless of hardware seller.
Every Hash Counts
Solo mining is probabilistic. Each hash is an independent attempt to find the next Bitcoin block, and the odds depend on your share of total network hashrate. Small miners can find blocks, but the probability remains low and should be read as educational context.
Hashing and transaction selection are separate roles. Your ASIC searches the header space supplied by its coordinator; the software that builds the candidate block chooses transactions, and fully validating nodes independently decide whether an announced block follows consensus rules.
Network Context
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Snapshot difficulty
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Est. Network Hashrate
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Snapshot block height
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Protocol subsidy
Method, assumptions, and sources
For sustained accepted hashrate H and snapshot difficulty D, the calculator uses rate = H / (D × 4,295,032,833.000015), where the constant comes from Bitcoin mainnet’s difficulty-one target. For an interval t, the chance of at least one accepted block is 1 - exp(-rate × t). The displayed mean is 1 / rate; it is not a deadline or a promise.
Each header hash is tested against the proof-of-work target. The coordinator or template builder supplies candidate block work and chooses transactions; a connected ASIC does not independently choose them unless the surrounding software gives it that role. Fully validating nodes independently accept or reject the announced block under consensus rules.
Difficulty is held constant across each illustration even though Bitcoin retargets every 2,016 blocks and elapsed calendar time varies. Network hashrate is a recent estimate and is used only for the share display; the probability calculation uses difficulty directly. Recent transaction fees are descriptive and variable. The service-fee field changes only the illustrative net reward, never the odds.
The browser accepts only a successful D-Central network snapshot no more than 30 minutes old. If that contract fails, probability results are withheld rather than filled with invented market or network values.
Primary references: Bitcoin Core proof-of-work code, BIP 22 block-template specification, dated calculator snapshot. Snapshot data identifies its upstream sources. Method reviewed August 30, 2026.
Make a probability result independently checkable
A copied or shared result should carry its inputs and timestamp, not only a rounded percentage. Record hashrate and unit, interval and unit, network difficulty, source and retrieval time, formula version, expected blocks λ, and probability with enough precision to preserve very small nonzero values.
Assumptions that travel with the result
- Effective hashrate stays constant; downtime, rejects, and throttling reduce attempts.
- Difficulty is held constant; long horizons are scenarios, not fixed forecasts.
- Attempts are independent; past misses do not alter the next hash.
- The miner receives valid current work; a dashboard or socket alone is insufficient.
- Probability alone says nothing about equipment, power, fees, taxes, or Bitcoin price.
Fast sanity checks
- Doubling hashrate or time doubles λ.
- Increasing difficulty lowers λ.
- Zero hashrate or time produces zero probability.
- Probability stays between zero and one.
- A nonzero result must not be displayed as an unexplained
0%.
Only calculation inputs belong in a shareable URL. Never place a payout address, miner identifier, or analytics identity in its query string. Compare devices in the solo-mining hardware guide and protect effective hashrate with the pool connection decision tree.
These are constant-condition probability estimates, not a countdown, forecast, profitability model, or financial advice. Actual accepted hashrate, uptime, stale or rejected work, template updates, difficulty, transaction fees, and payout terms can change the outcome. A valid block could be found on the first attempt or not within any chosen interval.
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