Pool Payout Variance Calculator: FPPS vs PPLNS vs Solo Swing (P10/P50/P90)

Ask two home miners with the same rig why their payouts look so different and the answer is almost never “luck” — it’s the payout scheme. FPPS hands you a smooth, paycheck-like stream because the pool absorbs the block-finding variance (and charges you for the service). PPLNS pays you a slice of each block the pool actually finds, so your swing depends on how big the pool is. Solo pays the full reward only when your own hashrate finds a block — same long-run expected value, but delivered as weeks of nothing and then a jackpot. This calculator simulates thousands of periods and draws the P10 / P50 / P90 band for each, so you can see the trade before you pick.

Quick answer

Two miners with identical hardware can have wildly different-looking payouts — because payout SCHEME, not luck, decides how much variance you personally absorb. Under FPPS or PPS+, the pool pays you your mathematically expected share every single day and keeps the block-finding variance itself, so your payout is nearly a flat line (P10 ≈ P90). Under PPLNS you are paid a slice of each block the pool actually finds, so your swing scales with how often the pool finds blocks — smooth on a giant pool, jumpy on a small one. Solo (and, in spirit, very small self-directed setups) pays only when your own hashrate finds a whole block: the expected value is the same, but you get zeros for weeks and then a jackpot. This tool simulates thousands of periods and shows you the P10 / P50 / P90 band for each.

Same expected earnings, radically different experience. FPPS buys you a smooth payout by letting the pool hold the variance (and charging for it); PPLNS and solo hand the variance to you. Pick the scheme that matches your cash-flow tolerance, not just the headline fee.

Your hashrate (TH/s) Network hashrate (EH/s) Pool hashrate share (%) Block reward (BTC, subsidy) Horizon

Method. Bitcoin produces ~144 blocks/day. Your share of network hashrate is f = your TH ÷ (network EH × 10⁶); the pool's share is what you enter. We run a Monte-Carlo (10,000 periods): the number of blocks found is drawn from a Poisson distribution, and each scheme translates that into your payout differently — FPPS/PPS+ pay your expected value every period (the pool absorbs variance, so the band is nearly flat — only tiny tx-fee noise); PPLNS pays your within-pool share (f ÷ pool share) of every block the pool finds (Poisson on pool blocks); solo pays the full reward only on periods where your hashrate finds a block (Poisson on your own blocks). Expected value is identical across schemes (minus fees, which this variance view omits) — only the spread changes. Percentiles are P10 (unlucky), P50 (median) and P90 (lucky). This is a teaching model, not a payout guarantee: real pools differ in fee, PPLNS window length, tx-fee handling and orphan rate. Related: the pool payout calculator (expected earnings by scheme), the mining pool database (fees + schemes per pool), and the solo mining calculator (time-to-block odds).

Why the expected value is identical but the experience isn’t

Bitcoin doesn’t pay hashrate — it pays blocks, and blocks arrive as a random (Poisson) process. Over a long enough horizon everyone converges to the same earnings per unit of hashrate, minus fees. The schemes differ only in who holds the randomness in the meantime. A pool running FPPS takes on the variance across all its miners and pays each one their statistical expectation daily; that pooling of risk is exactly what you’re buying with the fee. Under PPLNS the pool passes the block-timing through to you, smoothed only by its own size — which is why the calculator’s PPLNS band tightens dramatically as you raise the pool’s hashrate share, and blows open on a small pool. Solo removes all pooling: your band is the raw lottery, and the “zero-payout periods” figure is the number that matters most for planning your cash flow.

What this deliberately leaves out

This is a variance lens, not an earnings forecast. It omits pool fees, PPLNS window length, transaction-fee revenue (which adds its own variance, especially on FPPS during fee spikes), orphan/uncle rates, and difficulty changes over the horizon — all of which shift the expected number without changing the core lesson about spread. For the expected-earnings side of the picture use the pool payout calculator, compare real fees and schemes per pool in the mining pool database, and check whole-block odds in the solo mining calculator. The practical takeaway is simple: if a lumpy payout would stress your electricity bill, the FPPS premium is buying you something real; if you can ride out dry spells, PPLNS on a reputable pool — or solo, if you’re chasing the lottery — keeps more of the upside. New to the whole question? Start at the mining pools hub.

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Last reviewed July 18, 2026.