Difficulty-Adjusted Bitcoin Mining ROI Projector

Quick answer

A naive mining payback divides hardware cost by today's daily profit and assumes nothing changes. In reality network difficulty drifts and the block reward halves, so real returns differ — often a lot. This projector runs a month-by-month simulation over your hold period: each month it grows the difficulty at your chosen rate, halves the reward at the 2028 halving, and accumulates net CAD, then reports your true difficulty-adjusted break-even versus the naive constant-difficulty payback.

At the trailing-12-month difficulty trend (~-1.1%/yr, roughly flat post-halving) a payback looks close to the naive estimate; assume difficulty resumes growing and the same hardware pays back much later or never. Difficulty growth is uncertain — model a few scenarios. Defaults: difficulty 126T, reward 3.125 BTC (halving in ~21 months), BTC ~$86,791 CAD. Estimates only, not financial advice.